• Thailand exported 872,237 tonnes of fresh durian to China in 53,665 containers in the first half of 2026, worth 100.08 billion baht, the first time a half-year has passed 100 billion baht.
• Thailand's 2024 durian exports to China were 824,777 tonnes in 52,960 containers, worth 88.806 billion baht, according to figures cited in January 2025.
• China's customs data put Thailand's first-half 2026 durian value at nearly 3.79 billion US dollars, about 81% of China's imports, with Vietnam second at 846 million dollars or 18%.
• In all of 2025, China's customs data show Vietnam supplying 941,004 tonnes of fresh durian (50.37%) and Thailand 920,749 tonnes (49.29%).
• A draft Thai bill to fund durian research would add an export levy that media have reported at up to 2 baht a kilo, a figure that has not been confirmed.

Thailand sent 872,237 tonnes of fresh durian to China in the first half of 2026, in 53,665 containers worth 100.08 billion baht, the first time a half-year total has passed 100 billion baht, according to figures reported by The Star. Six months of shipping already exceeds the 2024 durian totals that Khaosod English cited in January 2025: 52,960 containers, 824,777 tonnes and 88.806 billion baht.

The Thai count

Agriculture Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit said export value is expected to reach 150 billion baht this year. The ministry credits the gains to tighter export controls: a "Four Nos" policy (no immature fruit, no worms, no false claims of origin and no Basic Yellow 2, a dye China now tests for), four-layer screening, traceability and electronic phytosanitary certificates, as FreshPlaza and The Star list them. Department of Agriculture director-general Rapibhat Chandarasrivongs said the department is shifting to a "Smart Regulator" role built on science and risk management. China's testing also covers cadmium.

The controls follow a hard lesson. In January 2025, after China began testing for Basic Yellow 2, durian bought at 230 to 240 baht a kilo was resold at 110 to 120 baht once rejected, and more than 100 containers were turned back, according to Khaosod English.

China's count is higher, and less comfortable

Chinese customs data reported by the South China Morning Post in July put Thailand's first-half value at nearly 3.79 billion US dollars, about 81% of China's durian imports, and total imports up 47%. Vietnam was second at 846 million dollars (18%). Thai ministry figures show the same half at just over 3.1 billion dollars, so the two sources differ; this story uses the lower Thai figure for baht values and China's for market shares.

Volume tells a different story from value, though the periods differ. Citing Chinese customs, Seoul Economic Daily reported that for all of 2025 Vietnam supplied 941,004 tonnes of fresh durian (50.37%) and Thailand 920,749 tonnes (49.29%). As recently as four years ago Thailand effectively monopolised the market, the same report says, before Vietnam was approved to export to China in 2022.

SCMP reports that a glut among Southeast Asian exporters pushed prices down. A farmer in Pato, Chumphon, told the Seoul Economic Daily that prices are now more than 10 baht a kilo below their 2020 to 2024 peak, though his income has risen because yields went up. The same report says Malaysia, the Philippines and Cambodia are planting more durian, and that China's own plantations in Yunnan and Hainan are small but growing. It warns that a rush of new planting could cause oversupply.

A levy on the table

On 11 October, SCMP reported that a Thai draft bill would create a fund for research and sustainable development of the durian sector, to be financed in part by fees. Media have suggested an export duty of up to 2 baht a kilo, a figure SCMP calls unconfirmed. The government's public relations department announced the bill the month before. Analysts quoted by SCMP said the cost could be passed on to Chinese supermarkets, raising prices in China and possibly affecting quality.

What it means for growers

For an orchard owner, the first-half record is good news about volume. The signals on margin are weaker: prices are below the 2020 to 2024 peak by one farmer's account, Vietnam is nearly level by weight, and shipments face China's tests for Basic Yellow 2 and cadmium. Thailand has increased the number of laboratories certified to test for residues, according to the Seoul Economic Daily.

What to watch

The draft levy bill, whose rate and start date have not been confirmed, and the full-year 2026 total against the 150 billion baht target. Thailand is also trying to diversify to India, the EU and the United States, according to Seoul Economic Daily, though the fruit's smell limits its prospects in new markets.

Sources

• The Star: Thai fresh durian exports to China exceed THB100bn in first half (2 Jul 2026)
• FreshPlaza: Thailand's durian exports to China top US$3.1 billion in first half of 2026
• South China Morning Post: China's durian imports from Thailand and Malaysia soar as glut pressures growers (23 Jul 2026)
• South China Morning Post: Could Thai durian export duty mean higher prices, higher quality in China? (11 Oct 2026)
• Seoul Economic Daily: Thai farmers switch to durian as Chinese demand soars (30 Sep 2026)
• Khaosod English: Thai durian prices crash after China's chemical test rules (16 Jan 2025)

• Momentum Works estimates that Grab held 47% and LINE MAN Wongnai 41% of Thailand's food delivery gross merchandise value (total value of orders) in 2025, which together is 88% of the market.
• Foodpanda stopped operating in Thailand on 23 May 2025 after a cumulative net loss of 399 million US dollars from 2019 to 2023, according to Department of Business Development data.
• LINE MAN Wongnai reported a net loss of 356 million baht on 16.7 billion baht of revenue in 2024, became profitable in 2025, and is targeting a public listing in 2027.
• SCB X sold the Robinhood delivery app to a group led by Yip In Tsoi on 30 September 2024 for up to 2 billion baht, 400 million baht up front and up to 1.6 billion baht tied to performance.
• Thailand's food delivery market grew 22% in 2025, the fastest of six Southeast Asian markets in Momentum Works' count.

Two apps now handle almost nine in ten food delivery orders by value in Thailand. Grab held 47% and LINE MAN Wongnai 41% of 2025 delivery order value, according to Momentum Works figures reported by KrASIA. The two shares add up to 88%. A third big name, foodpanda, no longer exists in the market.

How the field narrowed

Foodpanda announced in April 2025 that it would stop operating in Thailand on 23 May, and it did. The company said market conditions no longer fit its long-term strategy. Foodpanda had operated in Thailand since 2012 and, using Department of Business Development filings, lost a cumulative 399 million US dollars from 2019 to 2023.

Robinhood, the app owned by SCB X, was due to close on 31 July 2024 after its operator lost 2.1 billion baht in 2023. The travel, ride, mart and express services shut on schedule, but on 30 July SCB X postponed the food delivery closure because acquisition offers had exceeded its expectations. It then sold the operator, Purple Ventures, on 30 September 2024 to a group led by Yip In Tsoi for up to 2 billion baht, 400 million baht initially and up to 1.6 billion baht more depending on performance. The app kept running without interruption, and SCB X said the buyer had to be a Thai group committed to the platform. So the food delivery side of Robinhood did not leave; it changed owner.

Measures differ, and so does the ranking. An earlier estimate from Redseer for the first half of 2024, reported by Thairath, had LINE MAN first at 44%, Grab at 40% and ShopeeFood at 10%. Momentum Works' 2025 count puts Grab first.

LINE MAN's turn to profit

LINE MAN, which merged with Wongnai in 2020, had 20% of the market in 2020 and 41% in 2025. Its 2024 revenue was 16.7 billion baht, up 44%, with a net loss of 356 million baht, according to KrASIA. LY Corporation's profile of the company says LINE MAN became profitable in 2025. It gives no profit figure.

The platform says it has more than 10 million users, over 500,000 merchants (about 70% of them small independent shops) and 250,000 riders. LINE MAN chief executive Yod Chinsupakul expects revenue growth of at least 20% in 2026. LINE MAN is aiming for a listing in 2027, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Nasdaq under study and the Stock Exchange of Thailand not ruled out, and said it would settle the plan by the third quarter of 2026. It would spend the proceeds on price competition, AI and acquisitions.

The Thai delivery market grew 22% in 2025, the fastest of six Southeast Asian markets measured by Momentum Works, ahead of Malaysia and Vietnam at 19% each. Analyst Passakorn Wangwiwatcharoen of Asia Plus Securities told KrASIA that discount-led strategies are not sustainable and that both leaders' tactics squeeze margins.

The fight moves to restaurants' fees

Restaurants are the prize. When the "Khon La Khrueng Plus" co-payment scheme started on 29 October 2025, Time Out Bangkok reported that LINE MAN cut its fee to 7 to 9%, matching Grab: restaurants that enrolled by 3 November paid 7%, and 9% afterwards. Robinhood waived all fees from 3 November to 19 December for its first 5,000 establishments. ShopeeFood offered 0% to restaurants that signed up on 3 November. A restaurant could join only one platform in the scheme.

Those fee cuts are promotions. For most restaurants, commissions remain a cost problem: KResearch lists restaurants that depend heavily on delivery among the most exposed in 2026, citing low average profit and high platform fees, and the Thai Restaurant Association names delivery platform fees among the pressures on restaurants.

What to watch

The first test is LINE MAN's listing venue and timing, which the company said it would fix by the third quarter of 2026; no decision was found in the sources reviewed. The second is whether its 2026 revenue growth reaches the 20% it expects. The third is whether the 7 to 9% fees offered during the October 2025 co-payment scheme hold once such schemes end.

Sources

• KrASIA: Thailand's LINE MAN pushes beyond food delivery, eyes 2027 IPO
• Khaosod English: Foodpanda exits Thailand's food delivery market after years of losses (23 Apr 2025)
• SCBX: SCBX completes sale of Robinhood to a consortium led by Yip In Tsoi Group (30 Sep 2024)
• LY Corporation: How LINE MAN Wongnai became essential infrastructure for 10 million users (2 Jun 2026)
• Time Out Bangkok: Food delivery fees slashed as apps battle for restaurants (30 Oct 2025)
• Pattaya Mail: Robinhood to cease operation amid mounting losses (27 Jun 2024)
• SCBX: Postponement of the Robinhood food delivery service cessation (30 Jul 2024)
• Momentum Works: Southeast Asia food delivery GMV grew 18% to hit US$22.7b in 2025
• Kasikorn Research: Food and beverage business outlook (15 May 2026)
• Pattaya Mail: Thai Restaurant Association warns of closures without expanded state support (8 Jun 2026)
• Thairath: LINE MAN takes 44% share ahead of Grab (11 Sep 2024)

• MK Restaurant Group reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of 4,196 million baht, up 10.6%, but net profit of 221.36 million baht, down 19.7%.
• ZEN Corporation reported second-quarter 2026 net profit of 8.91 million baht, down 16.5% from 10.66 million baht a year earlier.
• Central Restaurants Group earned 232 million baht in the first quarter of 2026, up 50%, while Suki Teenoi earned 170 million baht, down 37.3%.
• Minor Food's core profit rose 3% to 1,277 million baht in the first half of 2026 and Thailand same-store sales turned positive, led by Bonchon, Dairy Queen and Swensen's.
• Minor Food signed a partnership with PTT Oil and Retail Business to open more than 150 outlets by 2030, and aims to grow from over 2,700 outlets to more than 4,500 by 2029.

MK Restaurant Group grew second-quarter 2026 revenue by 10.6% to 4,196 million baht and still saw net profit fall 19.7% to 221.36 million baht, according to Infoquest's report on its filing for profit and Brand Buffet for revenue. That one line describes most of Thailand's large restaurant groups this year: more branches, more sales, less money kept.

MK: sales up, margin down

MK's half-year numbers, summarised by Brand Buffet, show revenue of 8,243 million baht, up 12.4%, and net profit of 385 million baht, down 24.5%. Same-store sales fell 3.8% in the quarter, mainly in June, because a year earlier MK ran a 299-baht buffet promotion that set a high base.

The growth engine is Bonus Suki, a budget buffet that launched in July 2025. It was 12% of group revenue in the first half and had 39 branches by the results date. In June, The Nation reported the group's co-presidents saying the brand carried 27 branches and was opening one or two a week, and that gross margin would slip as more MK restaurants turn to buffets, which earn less per baht of sales than à la carte. They said the medium-term goal is to restore net profit to above 2 billion baht, the pre-Covid level.

MK also said the "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" stimulus, which runs from June to September, is limited to small operators, so its customers did not get the boost that street-food shops did. The board approved an interim dividend of 0.40 baht a share.

ZEN and the smaller names

ZEN Corporation earned 8.91 million baht in the second quarter, down 16.5% from 10.66 million baht. Its first-half profit was 24.57 million baht against 23.42 million baht a year earlier, so the half-year was slightly higher even though the quarter slipped.

First-quarter 2026 results gathered by The Nation show how uneven the picture is: S&P Syndicate earned 44 million baht (down 8%), After You 54 million baht (down 17%), Suki Teenoi 170 million baht (down 37.3%), and the operator of Ohkajhu posted a loss of 30.4 million baht. MK earned 163 million baht in that quarter, down 30.1%.

Who is holding up

Central Restaurants Group was the exception in the first quarter, with net profit up 50% to 232 million baht. Chief executive Nath Vongphanich named three pressures: fragile spending, price and promotion competition in the mass market, and high costs for labour, rent, utilities and delivery-platform fees. CRG's response is to buy ahead of price swings, find alternative suppliers and cut food waste, and Nath said the question is not who grows fastest but who can grow sustainably while keeping profit.

Minor Food is the other strong result. Parent Minor International's first-half results, reported by Kaohoon International, put Minor Food's core profit at 1,277 million baht, up 3%. Thailand returned to positive same-store sales, led by Bonchon, Dairy Queen and Swensen's, with Sizzler gaining traction in a new store format.

Where they are expanding

Minor Food is leaning on franchising. In August 2025 it set a target of more than 4,500 outlets by 2029 from over 2,700, with franchised stores rising from 48% to 56% of the total. The new PTT Oil and Retail Business deal will put The Pizza Company, Dairy Queen, The Steak & More and Chiho Ramen across PTT's network, aiming for more than 150 outlets by 2030. The filing summary does not give a signing date.

The Bar B Q Plaza operator, Food Passion, is expanding too, but says it will stay out of the buffet price war. COO Ruangshine Supanpong said the company, with 106 branches, plans 13 to 15 new ones in 2026 at 8 to 10 million baht each. Its 2025 revenue slipped 2.72% to over 3.587 billion baht and net profit fell 47.40% to over 129 million baht. He said the self-cooking segment (hotpot, grill, barbecue) has been in a price war for two years, and that the company will not join buffets that start at 200 baht.

What to watch

MK says its third quarter will lean on the 299-baht buffet campaign and a monthly flat-rate package, "MK Subscription", launched in July and August. The wider test is the fourth quarter, as government stimulus runs out and, KResearch warns, some operators may see unstable sales.

Sources

• Infoquest via RYT9: M net profit Q2/2569 (13 Aug 2026)
• Brand Buffet: MK Q2/2569 results (Aug 2026)
• RYT9: ZEN Q2/2569 net profit
• The Nation: Rising costs and price wars push chains and small restaurants to the brink (1 Jun 2026)
• Kaohoon International: MK launches Bonus Suki budget suki buffet (14 Jul 2025)
• The Standard: KResearch on Thai food and beverage market slowdown (13 Sep 2026)
• Kaohoon International: MINT 1H26 results (Aug 2026)
• The Nation: Minor Food targets 4,500 outlets by 2029 (Aug 2025)

• Thailand's food exports were 1,510,066 million baht in 2025, down 8.1%, according to figures presented by the Thai Chamber of Commerce on 31 March 2026.
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce, Federation of Thai Industries and National Food Institute forecast 2026 food exports at 1.4 trillion baht, down 7.3%, after a 10.5% fall to 202.1 billion baht in January and February.
• Exports to the Middle East are forecast to fall 50.7% in 2026, with canned tuna (17.4%), rice (13.3%), prepared sweetcorn (12.4%) and canned pineapple (11.5%) the products most dependent on that market.
• Thai rice exports fell 18.81% to 3.28 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, and the government's full-year target is 7 million tonnes against 8.3 million tonnes in 2025.
• Indonesia's mandatory halal certification for imported food has a compliance date of 17 October 2026, and Thailand's agricultural and agro-industrial exports to Indonesia were worth 1.4152 billion US dollars in 2025.

Thailand's food exports fell 8.1% to 1.51 trillion baht in 2025, and the industry expects another fall in 2026, to about 1.4 trillion baht. The numbers were presented on 31 March 2026 by Wisit Limluecha, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and chairman of its processed and future food committee, and reported by The Nation. The forecast was produced with the Federation of Thai Industries and the National Food Institute (NFI).

What happened in 2025

The Chamber blamed the global slowdown, US tariffs, weaker buyer spending, a stronger baht and the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. Shares of export value in 2025 were China 22.3%, ASEAN 11.5%, the United States 11.3% and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) 10.8%. China fell 11.6%, ASEAN 13.6%, the Middle East 16.7% and Africa 25.2%. South Asia rose 35.5%, the EU 5.2%.

Thailand ranked 15th among world food exporters with a 2.14% share of global food trade, down from the year before. Stockpiling flattered 2025. Long-shelf-life goods such as pet food, canned tuna and canned pineapple benefited, while short-life products such as rice, shrimp and ready meals fell. The report warns tariff effects will show more clearly if buyers stop stockpiling.

The 2026 forecast

In January and February, exports fell 10.5% to 202.1 billion baht. The three bodies forecast 305.9 billion baht for the first quarter (down 11.5%) and a 17.7% fall in the second, then a gradual recovery in the second half if the situation does not worsen. Their full-year figure is 1.4 trillion baht, down 7.3%.

On the Federation of Thai Industries' side, food group chairman Thongdee Pala said, as Pattaya Mail reported on 2 April, that energy and logistics costs would be the main drag in the first half. Middle East conflict pushed up freight and insurance, and exports to the Middle East, the US and Southeast Asia each fell by double digits in early 2026. The National Food Institute estimates the border dispute with Cambodia costs about 5 billion baht a month in export value. The group asked the government to steady fuel prices through tax cuts and the oil fund.

The Middle East is the steepest risk: the NFI forecast sees a 50.7% fall there, as cargo through the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf states is disrupted. Canned tuna is 17.4% of Thailand's food shipments to that region, rice 13.3%, prepared sweetcorn 12.4% and canned pineapple 11.5%. Growth markets are South Asia (forecast up 35%) and the EU (up 15.9%).

Rice shows the pressure

The Department of Foreign Trade reported that rice exports fell 18.81% to 3.28 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, worth more than 1.911 billion US dollars. Director-general Arada Fuangtong cited ample world supply, the disruption of sales to Iraq from March, and higher Thai costs. White rice was quoted at 447 dollars a tonne from Thailand, 435 from Vietnam, 405 from Pakistan and 367 from India. The full-year target is 7 million tonnes, 15% below 2025's 8.3 million tonnes.

Not every product is weak. Fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit exports rose 16.3% to 4.02 billion dollars in the first half, according to a government spokesperson's figures, and overall merchandise exports rose 17.6% to 196.74 billion dollars. That release gave no figure for processed food as a whole.

A new paperwork deadline

Indonesia's mandatory halal certification for imported food and drinks has a compliance date of 17 October 2026, according to The Halal Times. Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office has urged exporters to check product lines and certificates. Multi-ingredient processed foods and seasoned seafood need certification; unprocessed fresh produce without coatings is likely to be exempt. Thailand's agricultural and agro-industrial exports to Indonesia were worth 1.4152 billion US dollars in 2025.

Where the growth is

Future food, a category that covers health and wellness, medical, alternative-protein and organic food, rose from 79.5 billion baht in 2020 to 134.5 billion baht in 2025, or 8.9% of food exports. Health and wellness food is 90.3% of it. The next checkpoint is the first-half 2026 food total, which was not available in the sources reviewed for this story.

Sources

• The Nation: Middle East war hits Thai food exports in first two months of 2026 (31 Mar 2026)
• Pattaya Mail: FTI warns Thailand food exports to fall 7.3% (2 Apr 2026)
• The Nation: Thai first-half rice exports fall 18.81% (Aug 2026)
• The Nation: Thai exports rise 17.6% but import surge drives deficit (9 Aug 2026)
• The Halal Times: Indonesia's halal deadline puts Thai food exporters on notice

• Thailand exported pet food worth 3.28 billion US dollars (107.47 billion baht) in 2025, up 8.15% from 3.03 billion dollars in 2024, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office.
• Thailand is the world's second-largest pet food exporter with a 10.2% share, behind Germany at 12.1%.
• From January to May 2026 Thai pet food exports reached 1.43 billion US dollars, up 5.15%, with the United States taking 430.84 million dollars or 30.22%.
• Betagro's pet business sold 2.7 billion baht in 2025, up 25%, with exports up 43%, and it targets 5.6 billion baht in sales over the next three years.
• Nestlé is investing more than 157 million Swiss francs to add two production lines at its Rayong pet food plant, due to start in 2028.

Thailand sold 3.28 billion US dollars of pet food abroad in 2025, up 8.15% on 2024's 3.03 billion dollars, and kept its place as the world's second-largest exporter, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) of the Commerce Ministry, reported by The Nation. In baht the figure is 107.47 billion. The only country ahead is Germany.

The numbers

Thailand holds 10.2% of world pet food exports, against Germany's 12.1%. From January to May 2026 shipments reached 1.43 billion dollars (44.85 billion baht), up 5.15% from a year earlier. Growth is slower than the 2025 pace. The Thai Chamber of Commerce's food export report noted that buyer stockpiling lifted long-shelf-life goods such as pet food in 2025 while short-life products fell.

The five biggest buyers in January to May 2026 were:

• United States: 430.84 million dollars, 30.22% of the total.
• Japan: 157.85 million dollars, 11.07%.
• Australia: 76.55 million dollars, 5.37%.
• Italy: 72.63 million dollars, 5.09%.
• Germany: 65.72 million dollars, 4.61%.

The fastest growth is outside the top two. France rose 101.46%, New Zealand 36.69%, the United Kingdom 36.01%, Germany 32.25%, Australia 25.71%, India 19.08% and Japan 12.14%. Malaysia grew 9.12%.

What buyers want

TPSO director-general Nantapong Chiralerspong described demand as a "Healthy Pet, Affordable Premium" trend: owners want health benefits but check prices as inflation bites. The segments growing fastest are high-protein foods, vitamin and mineral supplements, immune-boosting products, senior-pet diets and specialised cat nutrition. TPSO advises exporters to spend on research and traceability, source ingredients locally, hold their core markets in North America, Australasia and Western Europe, and add emerging ones such as India, ASEAN, the Middle East and secondary Asian cities.

Who is investing

GlobalPETS reported in September that Nestlé is putting more than 157 million Swiss francs into its Rayong plant, about 180 km south of Bangkok. The expansion adds two lines to the existing three, covering Purina brands including Felix, Friskies, Pro Plan and Purina ONE for domestic demand and for export to Asia, Oceania and Africa. The new lines are expected to run in 2028, and the plant will use more locally sourced poultry, fish and vegetables.

Betagro, the agro-industrial group, says its pet business sold 2.7 billion baht in 2025, up 25%: domestic sales rose 18% and exports 43%. Chief operating officer Somcharn Suphapitiporn said premium products are 45% of its pet business in 2026 and should reach 54% by 2028. The group targets 5.6 billion baht in sales over the next three years. It sells to Japan, the Philippines and Malaysia today and is entering Bahrain, the UAE, Brunei, Hong Kong and South Korea under brands including Perfecta, DOG n joy and CAT n joy.

The risk

The United States is 30% of the business, so any change in its tariffs or stocks matters more than growth elsewhere. The Chamber's own caution is that tariff effects will show more clearly if stockpiling stops. Diversification is under way, but the US and Japan together still take about 41% of the total.

What to watch

Full-year 2026 trade data will show whether the 5.15% growth of the first five months held. The Nestlé lines are not due until 2028.

Sources

• The Nation: Thailand retains rank as world's second-largest pet food exporter (3 Aug 2026)
• GlobalPETS: Thailand targets further growth in pet food exports as producers expand (18 Sep 2026)
• The Nation: Middle East war hits Thai food exports in first two months of 2026 (31 Mar 2026)

• Kasikorn Research (KResearch) estimates Thailand's restaurant and beverage market at 682 billion baht in 2026, up 3.9% and revised up from its May forecast of 2.5%.
• In the first eight months of 2026 Thailand registered 3,263 new restaurant and beverage businesses, up 20%, while 491 deregistered, up 11%.
• Krungsri Research counted 946 corporate restaurant operators that ceased operating in 2025, up 9.9% from 2024, while new restaurant registrations fell 10.2% to 3,616.
• Street-food shops with a storefront are the fastest-growing restaurant group in 2026 at 280 billion baht, up 5.8%, while full-service restaurants grow only 1.8% to 214 billion baht.
• The Thai Restaurant Association said on 7 June 2026 that average restaurant sales fell 30 to 50 percent in the second quarter while ingredient costs rose 15 to 20 percent.

Thailand's restaurant and beverage market will reach about 682 billion baht in 2026, up 3.9% on 2025, according to Kasikorn Research's September update. The headline looks healthy. The detail does not: most of that growth is higher menu prices, profits are falling, and the number of operators leaving the market is rising.

A forecast revised up, from a low base

In May, KResearch expected only 2.5% growth for 2026, after 4.5% in 2025, and said the gain came mainly from price. By September it lifted the figure to 3.9%, helped by the short-term "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" co-payment scheme that ran from June to September. KResearch estimated the scheme would add at least 10 billion baht of spending between June and September, and the Fiscal Policy Office's data shows most of it going to restaurants, drinks, Blue Flag shops and delivery-platform restaurants that joined.

Menu prices are up about 10 to 15% compared with before the Middle East war, The Standard reported, citing KResearch. Revenue and branch counts rose, but net profit fell, even at large operators in the first half of 2026.

Who is growing

The split inside the market is wide.

• Street-food shops with a storefront: 280 billion baht, up 5.8%.
• Coffee and drinks shops: 64.4 billion baht, up 6.0%.
• Limited-service chains such as fried chicken and pizza: 94 billion baht, up 2.3%.
• Full-service restaurants: 214 billion baht, up 1.8%, the weakest group.

Buffets, high-end restaurants and shops that depend heavily on delivery are the three groups KResearch calls most exposed. Buffets run thin margins, premium restaurants see fewer visits and dearer imported ingredients, and delivery-heavy shops pay platform commissions on top of higher costs.

Entry is easy, exit is quick

KResearch expects more than 700,000 restaurant and beverage outlets in 2026, excluding street stalls and food trucks. In the first eight months, 3,263 new businesses registered (up 20%) and 491 deregistered (up 11%). KResearch's phrase for this is easy entry, quick exit.

Krungsri Research, which counts corporate operators only, gives the 2025 picture in its April outlook: 946 corporate restaurant operators ceased operating in 2025, up 9.9% from 2024, when 861 closed. New restaurant registrations fell 10.2% to 3,616 in 2025, the first fall since the post-Covid recovery began, with Bangkok down 15.8% and Phuket down 15.6%. Foreign arrivals fell 7.2% in 2025, and Chinese arrivals fell 33.6%. Krungsri expects food and beverage service revenue to grow 2.9 to 3.9% a year from 2026 to 2028, reaching 350 to 390 billion baht.

The two sets of registration figures use different scopes and periods, so they should not be added together or compared line by line.

Owners say it is worse than the averages

On 7 June 2026 the Thai Restaurant Association sent an open letter to Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Association president Thiniwan Kulmongkol said restaurant sales fell 30 to 50 percent on average in the second quarter and ingredient costs rose 15 to 20 percent, and that many owners were running at a loss to keep staff on. Those are the association's own figures, not an audited survey, and they describe restaurants earning 2 to 5 million baht a year rather than the whole market.

The association asked the government to lift the annual revenue ceiling for the Thai Chuay Thai Plus 60/40 scheme from 1.8 million baht to 5 million baht, so mid-sized restaurants qualify.

KResearch says the growth comes mainly from higher prices, which fits what owners describe: revenue holds up on the menu board while visits and margins do not.

What to watch

KResearch warns that the stimulus measures end in the fourth quarter of 2026 and that 2027 will stay difficult, with raw material, wage, electricity and delivery-platform costs all still high. Operators are advised to avoid price wars and sell on value and a distinct identity. The next data point is the full-year 2026 registration count for restaurants, due after the year closes.

Sources

• Prachachat: ตลาดร้านอาหาร 6.82 แสนล้าน ใครโต-ใครเหนื่อย (15 Sep 2026)
• The Standard: KResearch on Thai food and beverage market slowdown (13 Sep 2026)
• Kasikorn Research: ธุรกิจร้านอาหารและเครื่องดื่ม ปี 2569 (15 May 2026)
• Krungsri Research: Industry Outlook 2026-2028, Restaurants (24 Apr 2026)
• Pattaya Mail: Thai Restaurant Association warns of closures without expanded state support (8 Jun 2026)