Thai food exports fell 8.1% in 2025 and may slip again
The Thai Chamber of Commerce and the National Food Institute expect a further 7.3% fall in 2026, with canned tuna, rice, sweetcorn and canned pineapple most exposed.
Thailand's food exports fell 8.1% to 1.51 trillion baht in 2025, and the industry expects another fall in 2026, to about 1.4 trillion baht. The numbers were presented on 31 March 2026 by Wisit Limluecha, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and chairman of its processed and future food committee, and reported by The Nation. The forecast was produced with the Federation of Thai Industries and the National Food Institute (NFI).
What happened in 2025
The Chamber blamed the global slowdown, US tariffs, weaker buyer spending, a stronger baht and the Thai-Cambodian border conflict. Shares of export value in 2025 were China 22.3%, ASEAN 11.5%, the United States 11.3% and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) 10.8%. China fell 11.6%, ASEAN 13.6%, the Middle East 16.7% and Africa 25.2%. South Asia rose 35.5%, the EU 5.2%.
Thailand ranked 15th among world food exporters with a 2.14% share of global food trade, down from the year before. Stockpiling flattered 2025. Long-shelf-life goods such as pet food, canned tuna and canned pineapple benefited, while short-life products such as rice, shrimp and ready meals fell. The report warns tariff effects will show more clearly if buyers stop stockpiling.
The 2026 forecast
In January and February, exports fell 10.5% to 202.1 billion baht. The three bodies forecast 305.9 billion baht for the first quarter (down 11.5%) and a 17.7% fall in the second, then a gradual recovery in the second half if the situation does not worsen. Their full-year figure is 1.4 trillion baht, down 7.3%.
On the Federation of Thai Industries' side, food group chairman Thongdee Pala said, as Pattaya Mail reported on 2 April, that energy and logistics costs would be the main drag in the first half. Middle East conflict pushed up freight and insurance, and exports to the Middle East, the US and Southeast Asia each fell by double digits in early 2026. The National Food Institute estimates the border dispute with Cambodia costs about 5 billion baht a month in export value. The group asked the government to steady fuel prices through tax cuts and the oil fund.
The Middle East is the steepest risk: the NFI forecast sees a 50.7% fall there, as cargo through the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf states is disrupted. Canned tuna is 17.4% of Thailand's food shipments to that region, rice 13.3%, prepared sweetcorn 12.4% and canned pineapple 11.5%. Growth markets are South Asia (forecast up 35%) and the EU (up 15.9%).
Rice shows the pressure
The Department of Foreign Trade reported that rice exports fell 18.81% to 3.28 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, worth more than 1.911 billion US dollars. Director-general Arada Fuangtong cited ample world supply, the disruption of sales to Iraq from March, and higher Thai costs. White rice was quoted at 447 dollars a tonne from Thailand, 435 from Vietnam, 405 from Pakistan and 367 from India. The full-year target is 7 million tonnes, 15% below 2025's 8.3 million tonnes.
Not every product is weak. Fresh, chilled, frozen and dried fruit exports rose 16.3% to 4.02 billion dollars in the first half, according to a government spokesperson's figures, and overall merchandise exports rose 17.6% to 196.74 billion dollars. That release gave no figure for processed food as a whole.
A new paperwork deadline
Indonesia's mandatory halal certification for imported food and drinks has a compliance date of 17 October 2026, according to The Halal Times. Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office has urged exporters to check product lines and certificates. Multi-ingredient processed foods and seasoned seafood need certification; unprocessed fresh produce without coatings is likely to be exempt. Thailand's agricultural and agro-industrial exports to Indonesia were worth 1.4152 billion US dollars in 2025.
Where the growth is
Future food, a category that covers health and wellness, medical, alternative-protein and organic food, rose from 79.5 billion baht in 2020 to 134.5 billion baht in 2025, or 8.9% of food exports. Health and wellness food is 90.3% of it. The next checkpoint is the first-half 2026 food total, which was not available in the sources reviewed for this story.
FAQ
How much did Thailand export in food in 2025?
1.51 trillion baht, down 8.1% from 2024, according to figures presented by the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
What do forecasters expect for 2026?
The Thai Chamber of Commerce, Federation of Thai Industries and National Food Institute forecast 1.4 trillion baht, a 7.3% fall, with the worst of it in the second quarter.
Which products are most exposed to the Middle East war?
Canned tuna, rice, prepared sweetcorn and canned pineapple, which make up between 11.5% and 17.4% of Thailand's food shipments to the Middle East.
Sources
- The Nation: Middle East war hits Thai food exports in first two months of 2026 (31 Mar 2026)
- Pattaya Mail: FTI warns Thailand food exports to fall 7.3% (2 Apr 2026)
- The Nation: Thai first-half rice exports fall 18.81% (Aug 2026)
- The Nation: Thai exports rise 17.6% but import surge drives deficit (9 Aug 2026)
- The Halal Times: Indonesia's halal deadline puts Thai food exporters on notice
