31 October 2026 Published by Silicon Valley Innovation ไทย

Thai Food Report

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Thai restaurant market grows 3.9% in 2026 as profits shrink

New registrations rose 20% in the first eight months of 2026, yet deregistrations rose 11% and the restaurant association reports sales down 30 to 50 percent.

By Thai Food Report Desk · · 4 min read

อ่านภาษาไทย

A fruit vendor with a push cart on a Bangkok street corner, a Grab delivery box on a parked scooter beside the cart
A street-food cart on a Bangkok side street; illustrative of the street-food segment.Photo by luciano prats on Unsplash

Thailand's restaurant and beverage market will reach about 682 billion baht in 2026, up 3.9% on 2025, according to Kasikorn Research's September update. The headline looks healthy. The detail does not: most of that growth is higher menu prices, profits are falling, and the number of operators leaving the market is rising.

A forecast revised up, from a low base

In May, KResearch expected only 2.5% growth for 2026, after 4.5% in 2025, and said the gain came mainly from price. By September it lifted the figure to 3.9%, helped by the short-term "Thai Chuay Thai Plus" co-payment scheme that ran from June to September. KResearch estimated the scheme would add at least 10 billion baht of spending between June and September, and the Fiscal Policy Office's data shows most of it going to restaurants, drinks, Blue Flag shops and delivery-platform restaurants that joined.

Menu prices are up about 10 to 15% compared with before the Middle East war, The Standard reported, citing KResearch. Revenue and branch counts rose, but net profit fell, even at large operators in the first half of 2026.

Who is growing

The split inside the market is wide.

  • Street-food shops with a storefront: 280 billion baht, up 5.8%.
  • Coffee and drinks shops: 64.4 billion baht, up 6.0%.
  • Limited-service chains such as fried chicken and pizza: 94 billion baht, up 2.3%.
  • Full-service restaurants: 214 billion baht, up 1.8%, the weakest group.

Buffets, high-end restaurants and shops that depend heavily on delivery are the three groups KResearch calls most exposed. Buffets run thin margins, premium restaurants see fewer visits and dearer imported ingredients, and delivery-heavy shops pay platform commissions on top of higher costs.

Entry is easy, exit is quick

KResearch expects more than 700,000 restaurant and beverage outlets in 2026, excluding street stalls and food trucks. In the first eight months, 3,263 new businesses registered (up 20%) and 491 deregistered (up 11%). KResearch's phrase for this is easy entry, quick exit.

Krungsri Research, which counts corporate operators only, gives the 2025 picture in its April outlook: 946 corporate restaurant operators ceased operating in 2025, up 9.9% from 2024, when 861 closed. New restaurant registrations fell 10.2% to 3,616 in 2025, the first fall since the post-Covid recovery began, with Bangkok down 15.8% and Phuket down 15.6%. Foreign arrivals fell 7.2% in 2025, and Chinese arrivals fell 33.6%. Krungsri expects food and beverage service revenue to grow 2.9 to 3.9% a year from 2026 to 2028, reaching 350 to 390 billion baht.

The two sets of registration figures use different scopes and periods, so they should not be added together or compared line by line.

Owners say it is worse than the averages

On 7 June 2026 the Thai Restaurant Association sent an open letter to Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Association president Thiniwan Kulmongkol said restaurant sales fell 30 to 50 percent on average in the second quarter and ingredient costs rose 15 to 20 percent, and that many owners were running at a loss to keep staff on. Those are the association's own figures, not an audited survey, and they describe restaurants earning 2 to 5 million baht a year rather than the whole market.

The association asked the government to lift the annual revenue ceiling for the Thai Chuay Thai Plus 60/40 scheme from 1.8 million baht to 5 million baht, so mid-sized restaurants qualify.

KResearch says the growth comes mainly from higher prices, which fits what owners describe: revenue holds up on the menu board while visits and margins do not.

What to watch

KResearch warns that the stimulus measures end in the fourth quarter of 2026 and that 2027 will stay difficult, with raw material, wage, electricity and delivery-platform costs all still high. Operators are advised to avoid price wars and sell on value and a distinct identity. The next data point is the full-year 2026 registration count for restaurants, due after the year closes.

FAQ

How big is the Thai restaurant market in 2026?

KResearch estimates the restaurant and beverage market at 682 billion baht in 2026, up 3.9%. Restaurants account for about 590 billion baht of that and drinks shops about 94 billion baht.

How many Thai restaurants closed recently?

Krungsri Research counted 946 corporate restaurant operators that ceased operating in 2025. KResearch counted 491 deregistrations of restaurant and beverage businesses in the first eight months of 2026. Neither covers unregistered street stalls.

Which restaurant types are growing fastest?

Coffee and drinks shops (up 6.0%) and storefront street-food shops (up 5.8%) lead in 2026. Full-service restaurants grow slowest at 1.8%.

Sources

restaurantsKResearchKrungsristreet foodclosurescosts

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